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NZ Fuel Reserves Countdown

Calculated:0s ago
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Driven by Jet Fuel — 34.42 days total supply (25.35d in-country + 9.07d confirmed vessels)

NZ Government Debt

Live
$289,289,000,000
Per household: $139,618
Per second: +$936.52/s
Per hour: +$3,371,461 · Per day: +$80,915,068
Source DebtClock.nz
More data available at FiscalReality.nz →

NZ Fuel Reserves

Calculated:0s ago

Estimated current reserves · MBIE data as at 11:59pm Sunday 25 October, 2026

Lowest reserve: Jet Fuel at 34.42 days total (25.35d in-country + 9.07d confirmed vessels)

Jet Fuel— Most Critical

In-CountryConfirmed vesselsLikely / ScheduledMSO
In-Country (Est.)
25.35d
121.68 ML
Total (incl. confirmed)
34.42d
165.22 ML
MSO threshold: 24d
Daily use: 4.80 ML
Confirmed vessels: 43.50 ML (9.07d)
Likely + Scheduled: 4.80d

Petrol

In-CountryConfirmed vesselsLikely / ScheduledMSO
In-Country (Est.)
23.55d
190.75 ML
Total (incl. confirmed)
38.90d
315.09 ML
MSO threshold: 28d
Daily use: 8.10 ML
Confirmed vessels: 124.30 ML (15.35d)
Likely + Scheduled: 10.83d

Diesel

In-CountryConfirmed vesselsLikely / ScheduledMSO
In-Country (Est.)
20.35d
217.75 ML
Total (incl. confirmed)
35.66d
381.56 ML
MSO threshold: 21d
Daily use: 10.70 ML
Confirmed vessels: 164.10 ML (15.31d)
Likely + Scheduled: 10.36d

MBIE vs Actual Reserves

Calculated:0s ago

Compares the government's published MBIE reserve totals against confirmed reality: depleted on-land stock + AIS-confirmed vessel cargo. MBIE data as at 11:59pm Sunday 25 October, 2026.

⚠️

~8.4 days of unverified supply across all fuels. The government claims ~ 44.9d total but only ~ 36.5d can be confirmed via AIS tracking.

FuelOn LandConfirmedActual TotalMBIE Claimed TotalDifference
Petrol23.55d15.35d38.90d47.15d8.25d
Diesel20.35d15.31d35.66d42.45d6.79d
Jet Fuel25.35d9.07d34.42d46.45d12.03d
All Fuels22.5d(wtd)14.1d(wtd)36.5d(wtd)44.9d(wtd)8.4d
Petrol
In-Country: 23.55dConfirmed: 15.35dGap: 8.25d
Govt claim: 47.1d8.3d unverified (17%)
Diesel
In-Country: 20.35dConfirmed: 15.31dGap: 6.79d
Govt claim: 42.5d6.8d unverified (16%)
Jet Fuel
In-Country: 25.35dConfirmed: 9.07dGap: 12.03d
Govt claim: 46.5d12.0d unverified (26%)
In-Country Confirmed vessels Unverified gapTotal bar width = Govt's claimed total
Consumed since MBIE published:
Petrol: −5.85dDiesel: −5.85dJet Fuel: −5.85d
What's the gap? MBIE publishes a “total” that includes allvessels they believe are NZ-bound, including ships that haven't been confirmed by AIS tracking and are only likely or scheduled. Our “confirmed” figure only counts depleted on-land stock plus vessels we can verify via AIS (confirmed en-route or docked at berth having not docked since the most recent MBIE figures were released). The gap represents unverified supply that may or may not materialise depending on external factors.

Daily Consumption

Calculated:0s ago

Average daily demand (MBIE 12-month rolling): total 23.60 ML/day across all fuel types.

⛽Petrol
8.10 ML/day
61.4% of today consumed
4.97
ML today
0.34
ML/hr
5.6K
L/min
94
L/sec
🛢️Diesel
10.70 ML/day
61.4% of today consumed
6.57
ML today
0.45
ML/hr
7.4K
L/min
124
L/sec
✈️Jet Fuel
4.80 ML/day
61.4% of today consumed
2.95
ML today
0.20
ML/hr
3.3K
L/min
56
L/sec
Total All Fuels23.60 ML/day
0.98 ML/hr · 273 litres/second · 8.6 billion litres/year
Methodology: Average daily demand for the 12 months ending 4 months before the reporting period begins. Source: MBIE

Oil & FX

Fuel Prices

Vessel Pipeline

Supply Projections

Model:0s ago
MBIE published in-country history → today (incl. confirmed vessels)No Intervention (Baseline)Voluntary Conservation (10%)Government Rationing (25%)Emergency Lockdown (40%)
No Intervention (Baseline)
35.66days
Depletes ~5 Dec
Voluntary Conservation (10%)
39.62days
Depletes ~9 Dec
Government Rationing (25%)
47.55days
Depletes ~17 Dec
Emergency Lockdown (40%)
59.43days
Depletes ~29 Dec

NZ Government Bonds

Scenario Projections

Calculated:0s ago

Business as Usual

0.3x disruption

Normal supply chain operations with minor regional tensions.

petrol: 22.96d
diesel: 22.73d
jet: 21.81d
Critical: 21 Nov 2026

Prolonged Disruption

0.85x disruption

Extended Strait of Hormuz disruption. Partial rerouting via Cape of Good Hope.

petrol: 16.14d
diesel: 15.97d
jet: 15.32d
Critical: 15 Nov 2026

Full Crisis

1x disruption

Complete Hormuz closure. All Middle East supply cut off.

petrol: 14.93d
diesel: 14.78d
jet: 14.18d
Critical: 14 Nov 2026

SK Export Ban

1.48x disruption

South Korea halts refined product exports. NZ loses primary refining source.

petrol: 12.04d
diesel: 11.92d
jet: 11.43d
Critical: 11 Nov 2026

Government Response Options

Speed limit reduction (90 km/h)Mandatory 90 km/h open road limit saves ~5% petrol/diesel
+2.50 days
Odd/even rationingAlternate-day driving based on plate number
+5.00 days
Essential travel onlyLockdown-style movement restrictions for non-essential travel
+12.00 days
Airline flight reductions50% domestic flight frequency reduction
+8.00 days
Strategic reserve releaseRelease government strategic reserves (~7 days additional)
+7.00 days

AI Risk Assessment

Fuel News

Taxpayers' Union Media Releases

About the Fuel Clock

The Fuel Clock is an initiative of the Taxpayers' Union, built to provide independent, real-time insight into New Zealand's fuel security.

Official fuel data is often delayed and incomplete. By combining Government stock figures with live shipping and market data, the Fuel Clock gives a clearer, up-to-date picture of risk so Kiwis aren't left in the dark.

This isn't about alarmism. It's about transparency, and making sure the public has access to the information that matters.

Site built for the Taxpayers' Union by RB Alliance Ltd.

Data Sources

  • MBIE — Petroleum stock levels
  • Gaspy — Live fuel prices
  • DebtClock.nz — Government debt
  • AIS - Vessel information
  • Yahoo Finance - Bond Prices
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand — Bond yields
  • Polymarket — Geopolitical risk

About

  • Why the Taxpayers’ Union created this site
  • Methodology
  • Neon-backed persistence with full audit trail
  • Open methodology — all sources cited

© 2026 New Zealand Taxpayers' Union Ltd. All data is indicative only and should not be used for trading decisions.